(1996) Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems一书中介绍的可靠性评估PJM方法有下面几句话: * R% h. F' a* i6 R P4 {5 i1); U2 q1 s2 m* k. W" v" l It is necessary in a practical system to first define an acceptable risk level in order to determine the maximum demand that a particular committed system can meet. ! G* o5 {, S+ i/ y2)Consider, for example, that a risk of 0.001 is acceptable. If additional generation can be made available in System A within 1 hour, the required spinning reserve is only 30 MW and a demand of 170 MW can be supplied.2 \+ k! G' e5 b1 v% f
3) In practice an operator would use the PJM risk assessment method by adding, and therefore committing, one unit at a time from a merit order table until the unit commitment risk given by the generation model became equal to or less than the acceptable value for the demand level expected. R+ I. i: S8 Q B" P4 k
) U1 f0 l8 }- t
原文2句的意思:假设系统允许的风险水平为0.1%。对系统A,若在1h内可以获得额外发电容量的支持,那么,A系统的旋备需求为30MW,可带负荷170MW。 . i, G+ s c8 G% z( ?% w& @% N$ D+ r9 G2 T' n0 _
我的疑问: 3 `, R) K* ]; w1 ^8 F* J" K; [ M从表5.2可见,A系统停运容量大于30的累积概率=运行容量小于170的累积概率=0.0915%,即运行容量大于170概率99.9%,此情形下系统可以带负荷170MW,若还可以获得额外30MW旋备,系统可带负荷就应该是200MW。 E+ t' \' F$ U( a为何原文讲“170 MW can be supplied”?! y# x# i0 V9 D/ n4 ~
+ N, l7 S' B) r# d5 [7 J
# j' M( v4 ]& J. \9 J& s