(1996) Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems一书中介绍的可靠性评估PJM方法有下面几句话: + h3 }' N/ ~ _. d1) F% A9 t& C% C" i; iIt is necessary in a practical system to first define an acceptable risk level in order to determine the maximum demand that a particular committed system can meet. 6 `% C$ \: |4 u1 f- @* N2)Consider, for example, that a risk of 0.001 is acceptable. If additional generation can be made available in System A within 1 hour, the required spinning reserve is only 30 MW and a demand of 170 MW can be supplied.& s/ ]3 ], i' b) A% ]. x
3) In practice an operator would use the PJM risk assessment method by adding, and therefore committing, one unit at a time from a merit order table until the unit commitment risk given by the generation model became equal to or less than the acceptable value for the demand level expected." r' U( ^0 W' x C. d8 |6 X
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原文2句的意思:假设系统允许的风险水平为0.1%。对系统A,若在1h内可以获得额外发电容量的支持,那么,A系统的旋备需求为30MW,可带负荷170MW。 C8 X( C/ u& I$ Z3 d
( C% P/ u: D4 [* v9 t" z. Q5 y q- Q我的疑问: ! B3 W& h3 ^- N& s( o, a. S" B从表5.2可见,A系统停运容量大于30的累积概率=运行容量小于170的累积概率=0.0915%,即运行容量大于170概率99.9%,此情形下系统可以带负荷170MW,若还可以获得额外30MW旋备,系统可带负荷就应该是200MW。 9 z5 a* C% v$ J% p, x为何原文讲“170 MW can be supplied”? 9 ?. [. h. y" ^: R% L) x, }. ~- \: q+ ?- ?
" d% v- }9 c) J$ M( T! [3 b