ABSTRACT: Wind speed forecasting is very important to the operation of wind power plants and power systems. It can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact of wind power plants on power systems and enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against other power plants in electricity markets. Based on time series method and ANN (artificial neural network), the authors studied the wind speed forecasting and proposed a time series ANN method for wind speed forecasting. In the proposed method the mathematical model was built by time series method to obtain the basic parameters of wind speed characteristics, then these parameters was used to choose input variables of ANN. To improve the forecasting accuracy of ANN a rolling method to adjust weight factors was put forward. With above-mentioned method the wind speed forecasting accuracy was effectively improved.
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发表于 2011-8-11 16:53:58
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